Modeling and forecasting abnormal stock returns using the nonlinear Gray Bernoulli model

Chaotic Test and Non-Linearity of Abnormal Stock Returns: Selecting an Optimal Chaos Model in Explaining Abnormal Stock Returns around the Release Date of Annual Financial Statements

For many investors, it is important to predict the future trend of abnormal stock returns. Thus, in this research, the abnormal stock returns of the listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange were tested since 2008- 2017 using three hypotheses. The first and second hypotheses examined the non-linearity and non-randomness of the abnormal stock returns ′ trend around the release date of annual fin...

Forecasting for Financial Stock Returns Using a Quantile Function Model

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a...

Forecasting Taiwan's major stock indices by the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model

Predicting Abnormal Stock Returns with a Nonparametric Nonlinear Method

Neural networks (NN) can be applied to the predication of stock market trends based on information from legal insider trading. These data are available because officers of companies are required by law to submit to the Securities Exchange Commission a record of the sales and purchases of their companies stock. Because purchases are more useful in this endeavor than are sales, all smallcap, midc...

Forecasting Abnormal Stock Returns and Trading Volume Using Investor Sentiment: Evidence from Online Search ?

We examine the ability of online ticker searches (e.g. XOM for Exxon Mobil) to forecast abnormal stock returns and trading volumes. Specifically, we argue that online ticker search serves as a valid proxy for investor sentiment – a set of beliefs about cash flows and investments risks that are not necessarily justified by the facts at hand – which is generally associated with less sophisticated...